滑坡灾害风险评价是目前地质环境灾害研究的热点之一,滑坡灾害风险分析不但涉及自然科学,而且涉及社会经济学,是跨学科的综合性评价方法,因此需要将相关理论融合在一起,形成完整的滑坡灾害风险分析体系。论文在全面分析影响滑坡灾害因素的基础上,以风险评价及可靠度理论为基础,对滑坡灾害风险分析及风险设计进行了研究,提出了基于可靠度的滑坡灾害风险决策及评价方法。文中主要对以下内容进行了研究:论文对影响边坡稳定的相关因素进行分析,列出了边坡危险性评价的分类指标,对采用层次分析法(AHP)进行边坡危险性评价进行了详细阐述。将模糊矩阵相关理论引入到边坡灾害AHP分析中,采用模糊矩阵可有效解决由于人类思维的模糊性及客观现实的复杂性、不确定性之间的矛盾,在滑坡灾害层次分析(AHP)时,不能准确地确定两因素的确切比值的问题,更好地体现了专家判别过程中存在的不定性,减少了判别时所造成的误差。根据滑坡具有群发性的特点,提出了采用边坡的破坏概率、边坡的重要程度及边坡滑动体体积进行边坡危害性评判,确定灾害的治理排序。根据滑坡灾害破坏效应,充分考虑不同受灾体的共性和个性特征,同类型承灾体的性能、功能、破坏方式以及价值属性和核算方法基本相同或相似的原则,对承灾体类型进行分类,给出了不同承灾体的相应灾害易损性计算方法。在风险灾害评价研究过程中,地质灾害预测及治理大多是采用自然科学方法和手段,而社会易损性由于不能在地质灾害中得到直接的表现,研究较少。论文充分认识到社会易损性分析在自然灾害研究和减灾中的重要作用,对滑坡灾害的社会易损性内涵进行了分析,提出了增强社会承灾能力的相关措施。认为可接受风险不但与边坡的类型相关,也与边坡的状态相关(已建、新建),考虑到承灾体是主动或被动面对风险,采用ALARP原则,给出了建议可接受及可容忍风险水平。在边坡工程设计中,由于岩土体系统的不确定性而存在多种设计方案,方案的选取与专家的知识水平、个人喜好等有较大关系,方案的选取存在较大的人为因素。论文采用可靠度理论与风险评价相结合,以决策树作为分析工具,考虑到边坡工程投资及相应风险,进行边坡工程风险决策,一定程度上消除了决策过程中人为因素的影响,使决策更具科学性。为解决边坡工程设计中如何确定适宜可靠度指标的问题,论文基于可靠度理论对边坡风险设计进行了探讨,不以可靠度指标的大小判断边坡的稳定程度,而是从边坡工程的灾害风险分析出发,考虑工程费用及后续的经济风险损失,确定工程的可靠度指标,使边坡工程的安全性
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In recent years, study on the risk assessment of landslide hazard plays an important role in the field of hazard research worldwide. Risk analysis of landslide hazard involves not only natural science but also social science, which is a comprehensive assessment among multi-disciplinary branches, so the relative theories should be combined together to form an integrated consummate slope hazard risk analysis theoretic system. This article carries out risk evaluation, treatment decision-making and design means of landslide hazard based reliability theory and risk evaluation theory through comprehensive studied on the factors affect landslide hazard.The main research findings are as follows:First this paper analyzes the factors that influence slope stability, give out classification index of slope damage appraise, discuss the process of slope stability analysis by Analytic hierarchy process detail. As a fuzzy property of evaluation indexes is involved in the decision-making of treatment schemes of slopes, the fuzzy hierarchy analysis of decision-making of landslide hazard treatment is presented in this article. According to the two-two index comparison, the fuzzy numbers instead of definite numbers to form fuzzy complementary judgment matrix, thus error of judgment matrix caused by traditional hierarchy analysis is reduced. As slope hazards own the character of simultaneous occurrence, this paper suggests that we can evaluate slope harmfulness through damage probability, importance of slope and volume of slide baby.Based on landslide damage effect, consider the general character and personality of hazarded baby, follow similar criterion of performance, damage mode, value attribute and calculation methods, this paper give out corresponding vulnerability calculation methods based on different hazarded baby styles.In risk hazard analysis study period, the prevention and cure of geological hazard usually through natural science, social vulnerability don’t direct embodiment its effect in geological hazard prevention and cure, so the study about effect of social vulnerability is insufficiency. But risk evaluation and treatment decision-making of landslide hazard is a cross-discipline that not only concerns with the natural science but also concerns social science, this article is convinced of important effect of social vulnerability, analyze the connotation of social vulnerability and bring forward correlative strengthen methods. Tolerable risk or acceptable risk not only correlate with type of slope but also correlate